The conversation turns out badly, the interview doesn’t proceed as hoped for, and an important chance is lost. Afterwards, the mind starts to go over the event, thinking things like ‘If only I had said something else’, ‘What if I had left earlier?’, ‘What if I had prepared more?’, and ‘What if I had made a different decision’?

Such ideas are widespread. They consist of imagining in one’s mind how the event could have developed in a way different from how it actually did. This kind of thinking is known as counterfactual thinking in psychology; it is the process of coming up with alternatives to reality, especially alternatives concerning past events and then comparing these imagined possibilities with what really happened (Roese, 1997; Byrne, 2016).

Although counterfactual thinking is closely linked with regret it is not merely concerned with regret; it can assist individuals in identifying causes, learning from their mistakes, making decisions and preparing for future situations. It can also give a sense of emotional relief when a person thinks that the outcome could have been even worse (Epstude & Roese, 2008; Byrne, 2016). The real issue then is not merely the reason why the mind asks the question ‘what if?’ but rather what role that question plays?

Read More: what is Counterfactual Thinking?

The Mind That Rewrites Reality

Consider a person arriving ten minutes late for an important interview and then performing poorly. On the way home, several alternative thoughts may appear: If I had left earlier; If I had slept earlier the previous night; If I had not watched one more episode; If I had prepared my clothes the night before and so on!

The actual event remains unchanged: the person left late, arrived late and performed poorly. The mind, however, can construct several alternative versions of the same event. This is one of the central features of counterfactual thinking. The mind takes an actual event and mentally changes one or more elements to construct a different possible outcome (Byrne, 2016).

Counterfactual thoughts often have an implicit if–then structure: If X had been different, then perhaps Y would have been different too. The mind is therefore not simply replaying a memory. It is mentally modifying part of an event and considering the consequences of that modification. Interestingly, not every detail of an event receives equal attention. A person who performed poorly after arriving late is more likely to think about leaving earlier than about wearing a different pair of shoes. This is because some aspects of an event appear more changeable and more relevant to the outcome than others.

Researchers refer to these as mutable aspects elements of an event that can be mentally changed and that appear capable of influencing what happened (Byrne, 2016). The underlying question is often: “Which part of this situation could have been different?” That question can be useful. If a person recognises that inadequate preparation contributed to an unsuccessful interview, that information can influence preparation for the next one. In this way, a thought about the past can become information for future behaviour.

When the Mind Imagines a Better Reality

Not all counterfactual thoughts are the same. Sometimes the imagined alternative is better than what actually happened.

A student who scores 78 may think: If I had started preparing a week earlier, I could have scored 85.
A person who misses an opportunity may think: If the application had been submitted earlier, perhaps it would have been accepted.
After an uncomfortable conversation, a person may think: If I had been more honest, perhaps the conversation would have gone differently.

These are known as upward counterfactuals because the imagined alternative is more favourable than the actual outcome (Markman et al., 1993; Roese, 1997).

Upward counterfactuals can be uncomfortable because they create a comparison between reality and a better possible reality. The difference can produce regret, disappointment or dissatisfaction. However, that same comparison can provide useful information. A thought such as: “I should have started studying earlier.” can contain two different components. The first is regret about the previous examination. The second is information about what could be changed before the next examination.

This is one reason counterfactual thinking is more complicated than simply “overthinking the past.” Research suggests that counterfactual thoughts can influence future behaviour by providing specific information as well as by affecting motivation and emotional states (Epstude & Roese, 2008). The imagined alternative therefore does not necessarily have to become a source of self-punishment. It can become a behavioural lesson.

When the Mind Imagines a Worse Reality

Counterfactual thinking can also move in the opposite direction.

A person misses a flight but later thinks: At least the trip was not for something absolutely essential.
A student performs badly in an examination but thinks: At least the result could have been even worse.
Someone gives an embarrassing presentation and later realises: At least the private messages were not accidentally shared with the entire room.

These are downward counterfactuals because the imagined alternative is worse than the actual outcome (Markman et al., 1993; Epstude & Roese, 2008). Downward counterfactuals can sometimes regulate emotion by making the present situation appear relatively better. This creates an interesting contrast. Upward counterfactuals highlight what could have been better. Downward counterfactuals highlight what could have been worse.

The same cognitive process can therefore contribute to regret in one situation and relief in another. A person may think: “I could have done better.” and later think: “At least it did not become an even bigger disaster.” The first thought can encourage improvement. The second can provide emotional relief.

Why Regret Feels So Personal

Picture two individuals failing to seize an important opportunity. In one case, the opportunity is missed since the organisation unexpectedly cancels the programme. In the other case, the opportunity is missed because no application was submitted. Both of these situations could be disappointing; in addition, the second person has another imagined alternative, that is, the version of events in which the application was submitted.

The imagined version can develop in a surprisingly clear and detailed way. It is possible that the application was submitted. It is possible that the person got the opportunity. Maybe that opportunity resulted in another job, another relationship, another city or a completely different experience. The individual is then left having to compare reality with a life that never did happen, which helps to explain why regret can seem so personal. It is because of counterfactual thinking that people are able to compare an actual outcome with an alternative scenario in which their own behaviour had been different (Byrne, 2016).

However, there is a different psychological process which can make this kind of comparison especially unfair: hindsight bias. After an outcome is known, the events that led up to it seem more predictable than they really were. Studies into hindsight have demonstrated that knowing the outcome can affect the way people assess what was likely to have happened before (Fischhoff, 1975).

This causes a difficulty when judging earlier decisions. The present self knows how the story will end, while the past self did not. The individual who first made the decision had access to only the information, circumstances and uncertainties that were available at that time. The final version of the self contains the full account. That is an unjust comparison; rather than merely asking, ‘What should have been done?’, it might be more useful to ask, ‘What information was available at the time?’ The first question points out an area that could be improved upon, while the second helps to avoid hindsight leading to unnecessary self-judgment.

The Hidden Function of “If Only”

Counterfactual thinking begins with the past, but it can serve a future-oriented function. According to the functional theory of counterfactual thinking, counterfactual thoughts can influence behaviour through two broad routes. They can provide specific information about what should be changed, and they can also influence motivation, emotion and mindset (Epstude & Roese, 2008).

For example: “If I had prepared properly, I would have performed better.”The thought may initially produce regret. But it can also lead to:“The next time, preparation needs to begin earlier.” That transition is important. The counterfactual has moved from reconstruction to action. The phrase “I should have…” can also become psychologically complicated. In cognitive behavioural approaches, “should” and “must” statements are commonly discussed as cognitive distortions when they become rigid, unrealistic demands about how a person or situation must have been. They are not, strictly speaking, a single formally defined “cognitive bias.”

For example: “I should have known.”, “I must never make mistakes like this.”, “I should have handled everything perfectly.” These statements can go beyond learning from an event and move toward self-criticism. A more useful version might be:“What information does this experience give me for next time?” That distinction matters because learning from a previous decision is different from punishing the person who made it. The purpose of counterfactual thinking is not necessarily to discover a perfect version of the past. The past cannot be changed. Its potential value lies in using the imagined alternative to influence behaviour in the future.

When “What If?” Becomes Rumination

There is a difference between reflection and repetitive mental replay. Consider the difference between: “I did not prepare enough, so next time I will start earlier.” and: “What if I had studied earlier? What if I had revised that chapter? What if I had answered one question differently?”

The first thought produces a possible lesson. The second can become a loop. This is where counterfactual thinking can overlap with rumination, repetitive thinking about distressing experiences, their causes or their consequences without necessarily moving toward a solution.

The problem is not simply thinking about the past. Reflection on the past can be useful. The problem begins when the thinking stops producing anything new. At first, a person may genuinely identify something important. But after repeatedly replaying the same event, changing increasingly insignificant details may no longer provide new information.

The mind can become focused on solving a problem that no longer exists in the form in which it originally occurred. Research has examined the relationship between counterfactual thinking, regret and repetitive thought, including their association with psychological distress (Epstude & Roese, 2008; Roese et al., 2009). A useful counterfactual eventually moves somewhere:

toward understanding,
toward a decision,
toward behavioural change,
toward preparation,
or toward acceptance.

Rumination, in contrast, can keep attention attached to the same event without producing a meaningful next step. The difference therefore lies not simply in whether people revisit the past, but in what they do after revisiting it.

Why Some “What Ifs” Feel So Convincing

Not every alternative seems equally believable. Suppose a person loses a competition by one point. It is relatively easy to imagine: “What if that one point had gone differently?” The distance between the actual outcome and the imagined outcome feels small.

Now imagine losing the same competition by fifty points. It becomes much harder to believe that one minor change would have completely transformed the result. Counterfactual thinking tends to focus on aspects of events that appear changeable and capable of influencing the outcome (Byrne, 2016). This may explain why seemingly tiny details can become extremely important in memory:

five minutes spent getting ready,
A sentence someone never said,
application that was not submitted,
A phone call someone never made,
A decision someone postponed.

The mind tends to construct alternatives that remain sufficiently close to reality to feel plausible. This has an important consequence. The same mental process that creates regret can also create a sense of agency. If one decision could have changed the outcome, then behaviour matters. And if behaviour matters, people can potentially change how they behave in the future. Counterfactual thinking can therefore make a person feel both: “I wish I had acted differently.” and “I can act differently next time.”

The Problem With Punishing Past Selves

A question that is very useful when dealing with counterfactual thoughts is not just “What could have been done differently?” but rather “What was known at the time?” Although these questions may seem alike, they assess the previous decision in different ways. The first one evaluates the decision by means of our present knowledge, while the second tries to understand the decision by referring to the information that was actually available at that time. Suppose someone accepts a job that later turns out to be a bad fit. Looking back, the warning signs might seem obvious. But did they seem obvious at the time?

It might be that some information was not available.
Maybe yet another possibility was even less suitable.
It is possible that there were financial or family pressures.
It is possible that the person truly thought the decision was reasonable.

The fact that the outcome was bad doesn’t necessarily imply that the decision was irrational. It is important to make this distinction since learning from a previous decision is different from holding the past version of oneself to account. Although counterfactual thinking can help people work out how they could have done things differently. It does not necessarily follow that the person who originally made the decision was foolish. What is important is to obtain information from the past without using hindsight as a means of punishing someone.

The Psychological Functions of “What If?” Thinking

Counterfactual thinking persists because it serves several psychological functions. Research suggests (Roese & Olson, 1997; Epstude & Roese, 2008) that it can help with:

Learning from mistakes
Understanding causes
Future preparation
Decision-making
Emotional regulation
Regret
Sense of agency
Self-evaluation
Goal pursuit
Meaning-making

However, these functions do not mean that every “what if” is psychologically beneficial. The same process can help people learn or cause them to experience repetitive and distressing thoughts, depending on how they use it.

Conclusion

Counterfactual thinking is a normal part of human cognition. The mind does not only register what happened; it also generates possibilities about what could have happened. That is why thoughts such as “If only…”, “What if…”, and “I should have…” can appear after important decisions and emotionally significant events.

Sometimes these thoughts create regret.
Sometimes they provide relief.
Sometimes they reveal a lesson.
Sometimes they become a repetitive loop that keeps a person attached to an event that cannot be changed.

The difference lies partly in what happens next. A counterfactual can ask: “What could have been different?” But a more useful question may eventually become: “What can be different now?” The first question belongs to the past. The second belongs to the future. The past cannot be rewritten, but it can still provide information. A missed opportunity can reveal a pattern. A poor decision can reveal a need. A painful conversation can reveal something about communication. A failure can reveal what needs to change. The purpose of reflecting on an alternative reality, then, does not have to be to live inside it. It can be to understand the reality that exists, and make a better decision in the one that comes next.

References +

Byrne, R. M. J. (2016). Counterfactual Thought. Annual Review of Psychology, 67, 135–157. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-122414-033249
Epstude, K., & Roese, N. J. (2008). The Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 12(2), 168–192. https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868308316091
Roese, N. J. (1997). Counterfactual Thinking. Psychological Bulletin, 121(1), 133–148.
Roese, N. J. (1994). The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66(5), 805–818.
Roese, N. J. (1999). Counterfactual Thinking and Decision Making. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 6, 570–578.
Markman, K. D., Gavanski, I., Sherman, S. J., & McMullen, M. N. (1993). The Impact of Perceived Alternatives on Judgment of Outcomes. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin.
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight Is Not Equal to Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288–299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288
Roese, N. J., Epstude, K., Fessel, F., Morrison, M., Smallman, R., Summerville, A., Galinsky, A. D., & Segerstrom, S. (2009). Regret Predicts Depression but Not Anxiety: New Findings from a Nationally Representative Sample. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 28(6), 671–688.
Zeelenberg, M., & Pieters, R. (2007). A Theory of Regret Regulation 1.0. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 17(1), 3–18.
1Koster, E. H. W., De Lissnyder, E., Derakshan, N., & De Raedt, R. (2011). Understanding Depressive Rumination from a Cognitive Science Perspective: The Impaired Disengagement Hypothesis. Clinical Psychology Review, 31(1), 138–145.

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